There are also substantial regional differences in incidence of armed conflict, and global trends do not necessarily reflect those trends. military prepares to defend the United States in periods of crisis, not just for the "average" level of threat or in response to "average" incidence of conflict. Of the alternative future scenarios we examined, only a few produced large spikes in armed conflict.īut the defense policy implications of these findings are not straightforward, since conflict trends do not follow straight lines and the U.S. Many factors have contributed to the long-term decline in conflict and most of those factors remain in place. Similarly, intrastate conflict (that is, civil wars and related political violence) had declined steadily for two decades before an uptick in conflict sparked by the wars in Syria and Ukraine in 2014. Interstate war (that is, war between states) has become a rare event. From a decades-long perspective, the incidence of armed conflict has decreased.
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